Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rob Portman of Ohio seem the most likely given how often they’ve voted with Biden this Congress. Still, it would be surprising if Jackson didn’t get at least a few Republican votes. That’s another big reason why even confirmed Supreme Court nominees are getting fewer “yes” votes than they used to. The Senate has grown more polarized in general, with senators less likely to cross the aisle over the last 30 years – more so over the last 15 to 20 years. Of course, we probably shouldn’t expect Jackson to get anywhere near the number of votes Roberts got from senators (78). This strong popularity for earlier nominees helps, at least in small part, to explain why most of them flew through their confirmation hearings and why many this century have generally had a harder time. Since 2005, nominees who either got a Senate vote or withdrew their nominations averaged only a +10-point net popularity rating in their final polls.Ĭompare that with nominees from 1986 to 1994, who averaged a +26-point net popularity rating in their final polls before their Senate vote or withdrawal of their nomination. Indeed, one of the big stories of Supreme Court nominations this century is how divisive they’ve generally been with the American public. Jackson could join Roberts as the only Supreme Court nominees this century to achieve a popularity level anywhere near where Thomas was some 30 years ago. Thomas had a +33-point net popularity rating among Americans, according to an average of polling taken before he was confirmed. Yet, Thomas was confirmed by a Democratic-controlled Senate.Ī lot of that may have had to do with the fact that he was popular. Clarence Thomas, for example, was generally viewed in 1991 as very conservative and not as well qualified as many earlier nominees. Holding everything else equal, nominees got more votes when they were more popular with the public. One of the factors I included was public sentiment about a nominee. The model took into account variables such as a nominee’s qualifications, the ideology of the nominee and the senator, etc. Jackson’s popularity should only help her in the confirmation process.Ī few years ago, I built a statistical model to help understand why senators vote the way they do on Supreme Court nominees. If Jackson’s ratings hold up through her likely confirmation, she would be the most popular nominee to be confirmed since John Roberts in 2005. This is good for a +27-point net popularity rating. According to an average of polls by Gallup, Fox, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University and the Pew Research Center, about 53% of Americans supported her confirmation, with about 26% of Americans opposed. It’s with the Jackson confirmation hearings that we begin our statistical journey into the news of the week.įive recent surveys have indicated strong support for President Joe Biden’s decision to nominate Jackson for the Supreme Court seat retiring Justice Stephen Breyer is vacating. And the Senate hosted confirmation hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to join the Supreme Court. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine reached its one month mark. Two news stories dominated the headlines this week.
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